Experiment: What the Random Walk Hypothesis Says About Predicting Financial Markets

In the many blogs on the internet and the analytical section of our websites, we write a lot about algorithms and tools for predicting movement in the financial markets. At the same time, many observers believe that such activities are akin to playing in a casino - everything is random on the stock exchange, which means nothing can be predicted. A quantitative analyst at NMRQL hedge fund Stuart Reid published the results of a study on the Turing Finance website, during which he used the random walk hypothesis, trying to confirm or refute the thesis about the randomness of financial markets. We present to your attention the main ideas of this material.

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 As Reed writes, hackers and traders are essentially doing the same thing—they find inefficiencies in the system and exploit them. The only difference is that some, pursuing a variety of goals, hack computers, networks, or even people, while the latter hack financial markets and their goal is to make a profit.

 In this context, the topic of random number generators is very interesting - they are used to encrypt data and communications, but if a vulnerability is found in the generator, it ceases to be protected, and hackers can use the error to decrypt information. There are various sets of tests that such generators must pass in order to evaluate their cryptographic strength. One such set is the NIST test group. In this article, we will look at applying these tests to financial strategies to see if the market can be hacked.

 Random Walk Hypothesis

In the real world, many systems exhibit properties of randomness. For example, the spread of epidemics like Ebola, the behavior of cosmic radiation, the movement of particles in water, luck while playing roulette, and, according to the random walk hypothesis, even the movement of financial markets.

 Consider an interesting test conducted by Princeton University economics professor Burton G. Malkiel. In its course, students were "issued" a hypothetical stock, which initially cost $50. The closing price for this stock was determined each day by a coin toss. If it came up heads, the price was half a point higher, and if it came tails, it was half a point lower. Thus, each time the chance of the value rising or falling compared to the previous "trading day" was 50%. Thus, price cycles and trends were determined.

 Subsequently, Malkiel visualized the results using charts and showed them to “chartists,” that is, specialists who predicted future price movements based on their past fluctuation patterns. The Chartists advised him to buy shares immediately. But since this stock did not exist, and its price was determined by the toss of a coin, there were no real patterns, and therefore there could not be a trend. The result of the experiment allowed Malkiel to argue that the stock market is as random as a coin toss.

 It's like the " financial Turing test "”, during which people familiar with the financial market are invited to look at the time series chart and determine which of them is real market data, which is a simulation using random processes:

 

Is this a real market?

 

And is it random?

 

Or is there no difference at all?

 It's pretty hard to determine. It is observations like these that led many researchers in the field of financial markets to think about how to find out how random the behavior of stocks on the stock exchange really is. The theory that prices move randomly is called the random walk hypothesis.

 Many of the researchers have done tests like Malkiel's experiment, but they don't actually prove that the stock market develops by chance. They only prove that for the human eye, in the absence of additional information, real price movements cannot be distinguished from random ones.

 There are drawbacks to the hypothesis itself:

1. It considers different markets as a homogeneous environment, not taking into account the differences between them.

2.  It does not explain the many empirical examples in which people have consistently won in the market.

3.  It is based on a statistical definition of randomness, not an algorithmic one. And this means that the hypothesis does not distinguish between local and global randomness, does not take into account the concept of the relativity of randomness.

And yet, whether one likes it or not, it is undeniable that the widespread use of the random walk hypothesis among quantitative analysts in the stock market as a whole has had a major impact on how various financial instruments, such as derivatives or structured products.

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How to Abide by the Pet Rules in Your Lease

As a person who has been renting for many years, I can tell you that each and every lease can be very different. The laws can vary depending on what state you live in, and what rules are put into your lease. When you have pets, things can sometimes get a little more complicated. There are several things you will want to keep in mind when you rent and you plan on having pets, or you already have them. In some instances there are a few things that are sometimes overlooked when it comes to pet rules, so keep reading below to find out what they are. The last thing you want is to have an eviction notice on your door, because of a simple mistake.

Loopholes in your lease

Do you know the fine print that is sometimes found on the bottom of your lease? Or perhaps you just did not take the time to read all 32 pages of your lease, because it just seemed like too much. Be careful because this is the area of the lease that usually contains those little loopholes in reference to pets. Some are very specific as to what type of pet you can have, and even how big of a pet you can have. Some are even breed specific. The lease may also indicate that you can not replace the pet, with another pet. It may seem like common sense when it comes to loopholes in the lease but you would be surprised at how many people actually miss something, simply because they failed to read it carefully.

Visiting pets

In today's society it is not unusual to find many families who tend to humanize their pets. Sometimes feeling as if they need to schedule play dates for them. The one thing you don't want to do is suddenly have your house full of your friend's pets, such as dogs in your home. This can easily cause the landlord to get upset and feel that you have taken advantage of the lease agreement.

Clean up after all pets

I have seen that in some instances individuals allow others to bring their pets over, and they do not clean up after their pets. I have also seen tenants who fail to clean up after their own pets. This may seem like something small and simple, but you would be surprised at how many people fail to obey the terms of the lease and find themselves evicted.

Document all verbal changes

It may seem minor but if your landlord agrees to allow you to get a replacement pet, be sure that the terms are in writing. You will want to have a document that shows the changes in your lease, and be sure that it is dated. You don't need to hire an attorney to do this, but just have them write down everything they agreed to and both of your sign it. It may help to have a witness present that is a neutral third party and have them sign it as well. This will help you to avoid having any problems in the future if the landlord suddenly forgets what they have agreed to.

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Why You Should Add Pumpkin to Your Pet's Diet

Like us, it's not uncommon for dogs and cats to have bouts of diarrhea and constipation. There's a variety of causes for both. As long as it doesn't last for long periods of time, it's not something to be concerned about. You should watch your pet while he's having a bowel movement, because it's a good way to see early warning signs of illness. Adding pumpkin to your pet's diet can help counter episodes of diarrhea or constipation. I freeze pumpkin in ice cube trays and store them in a zip-lock bag because one of my dogs likes to eat his pumpkin frozen.

The intestinal system works in an amazing way to move waste from the body. If the intestinal lining becomes irritated or inflamed, the body flushes the culprit out in the form of diarrhea. A problem in the upper digestive tract comes out as vomit and as diarrhea in the lower tract. Excess water in stools causes them to become loose, which hurries along the process of getting the irritant out. 

Constipation is a hard, firm stool that requires straining to get it out. Dehydrated pets, older pets, and dogs that have enlarged prostates commonly suffer from constipation. When solid waste sits in the colon too long the stools can become dried out, making it harder to eliminate which can put some pets at risk of developing megacolon, a chronic condition where the large intestine is stretched to the point where it is no longer able to efficiently do its job. This is more common in cats than dogs. 

Causes of diarrhea 

Diarrhea can be a result of pica, eating garbage, spoiled food, toxic plants or poison. A change in diet, internal parasites, giardia, or coccidia, an allergic reaction, viral or bacterial infection, stress, kidney or liver disease, inflammatory bowel disease, food allergies, tumors or cancer in the digestive tract, or pancreatitis. Bouts of diarrhea are more common in dogs and cats than constipation.

Causes of constipation 

The most common cause of constipation is not drinking enough water or getting enough fiber in their diet. But it can also be due to an obstruction in the colon, a pelvic cavity problem, or a tumor in the abdomen. Ingesting foreign objects (pica) or pieces of bone can become lodged in the bowel and prevent elimination. Male dogs that haven't been neutered can develop an enlarged prostate, making it harder for them to go. Neutering your dog can help with constipation problems. Hernias and other medical issues, lack of muscle tone, infected anal glands, hip or pelvic injury, iron supplements, stress, and some medications can cause constipation.

Provide plenty of fresh clean water daily 

Cats get most of their daily intake of water from their food and may need encouragement to drink water. Not getting enough water puts felines at risk of becoming dehydrated during summer and winter months, and increases the risk of developing crystals in the urinary tract that can block the flow of urine, or bladder infections. How much water your cat needs depends on her normal diet, activity level, and hot weather. If she eats mainly dry food, she needs to drink more water. Felines prefer fresh clean water, so you may need to freshen her water bowl throughout the day. Pet water fountains can also encourage cats to drink more because the water is in motion instead of sitting still. Adding canned food to a dog or cat's dry kibbles ups the moisture content, which helps prevent constipation and other possible issues with the digestive or urinary tract. How much water your dog needs depends on his size, activity level, normal diet, and hot weather. During heat spells or increased activity more water intake is needed. Daily exercise can help to keep pets regular.

When it's time to be concerned about diarrhea or constipation 

Most bouts of diarrhea or constipation will clear up on its own in a day or two. But if either one lasts longer than a couple of days or goes away only to return a short time later, it's time to be concerned and consult with your vet. There may be something more serious going on that needs to be dealt with. If you suspect a foreign object or bone could be causing an obstruction, don't wait to see if a bowel issue will clear up on its own. Call your vet immediately.

Why you should add pumpkin to your pet's diet 

Pumpkin is a natural way to add fiber to your pet's diet to clear up diarrhea and constipation, and most dogs and cats like it. The fiber softens stools of a constipated pet and absorbs excess water in the digestive tract to combat diarrhea to make firmer stools. Plain canned pumpkin (do not use canned pumpkin with nutmeg or other spices used to make pumpkin pies) or steamed fresh pumpkin is safe for pets to eat. Never use a Halloween pumpkin that's been carved. It has toxic bacteria and mold that could harm pets. If pumpkin isn't available, cooked squash is a good alternative. Pumpkin adds beta-carotene, potassium, iron, vitamins, iron, and zinc to your pet's diet, and fiber helps the body feel full which promotes weight loss in an overweight pet because they don't have to eat as much to feel satisfied. However, talk with your vet before putting your pet on a diet. Too much pumpkin can cause diarrhea or constipation, so introduce it slowly to give your pet's body time to adjust to the extra fiber in their diet. Dogs and cats under 15 pounds can have 1-2 teaspoons daily, pets 15-35 pounds can have 1-2 tablespoons, and dogs over 35 pounds can have 2-3 tablespoons each day. The amount of pumpkin should be in proportion to their size. If your pet becomes constipated, reduce the amount of pumpkin you're giving him.

How to Fix Cooking Mistakes: Common Errors and Uncommon Disasters

Bad things happen to good cooks. Actually, the reverse is true as well: good things happen to bad cooks. That's what happened to me when I was first starting out on the kitchen. But what is a good thing? Actually, for me, the most learning and the best dishes came from my mistakes. Whenever I cooked, whether due to accident or whimsey, I would inevitably make an irreparable deviation from a recipe and be left with a dish that needed salvaging. So I would experiment when fixing cooking mistakes, and sometimes end up with a final result that was even better (or at least more interesting) than what I had been trying to make. Sure, sometimes it was a soggy and inedible mess, but I learned from that too. That's how I learned to cook independently. Being forced to go off-recipe like that taught me the rules of being creative in the kitchen, and I learned to break them all too. From fixing cooking mistakes creatively I learned not only how to salvage a dish, but to create entirely new ones as well.

So you have a dish that went wrong. What do you do? Here are a few tricks that will help to fix a dish gone wrong.

Common Cooking Mistakes: 

There are a few mistakes that just about every cook makes at one point or another. Luckily, fixing cooking mistakes like these are pretty easy. Here's how: 

• Too spicy? Add something sweet (honey, sugar, or even fruit works well in some dishes) or some dairy (sour cream, cream cheese, yogurt, cream, and cheese are all perfect).
• Too salty? The only thing to really do is add more ingredients. One option is adding liquid like water, stock (not salted), or milk/cream in some cases. Another is to add starchy ingredients like potatoes or grains. I also like tossing in some new vegetables (eggplant seems to work particularly well).
• Too sweet? Adding some acid (like lemon juice or vinegar) is the easiest way. If it's a simple dish though, I like to experiment by adding another ingredient, which both dilutes the sweetness and transforms it into an entirely new dish.
• Too Soggy? Most of the time this is because the pan is too crowded. Try taking half of the ingredients out and either cooking in batches or using two pans.

Fixing Dishes (By Making New Dishes): 

Some dishes are pretty straightforwards to fix. Others require a little bit of creativity to fix, but don't worry--this is what makes fixing cooking mistakes fun! Here are some ideas to get you started.

Bread.

• Make croutons. Cut into chunks and cook in a little oil. Add some spices if you wish.
• Make french toast. "Pain perdu," or "Lost bread" in French, this dish was invented for stale or otherwise botched breads. A little egg, milk and maple syrup will make a scrumptious meal out of it!
• Make stuffing. Stuffing is good on its own and with a whole array of other dishes, and the best thing is that disappointing bread can be used to create marvelous results with this recipe.
• Make bread pudding. Bread pudding is rich, sweet and thick. Whatever is wrong with your bread won't do much to change that, and you'll have a killer dessert out of it.

Soups.

• Make it a sauce. If the liquid is okay and the whole ingredients are not (if they're overcooked, for example) pour the liquid into a pan and add a thickener like cornstarch.
• Saute it up! If the whole ingredients are fine and the liquid is not (over-spiced, for example), dispose of the liquid and and cook it in a frying pan, adding other ingredients to freshen it up and give it substance. Bean soups, meat soups, and chicken noodle soups are particularly good for this. Particularly effective if you add it to rice.
• Make it a gravey. If there is some other problem, but it is still salvagable (say, the taste is okay in moderation), cook up some veggies and pour the soup in (you may want to dispose of some of the liquid first).

Baked desserts.

• Cut and flip. The most basic cake-saving action. If it's too broken on top, just slice over the top with a serrated knife and turn it over, making the bottom into the top.
• Turn it into a trifle or parfait. Layer the broken pieces with fresh fruit and whipped cream and let chill in the fridge.
• Make it a crumble topping. Cookies, bars and even dense or overcooked brownies make a delicious crumble topping for ice cream and other desserts.
• Make it a crust or base. Many baked goods can be crumbled or smushed into the bottom of a pie dish to make a sort of crust. After that, add whatever fits your fancy--custard, fruit, pie filling... anything is possible!

Vegetables.

• Make soup. Try pureeing them and adding a little cream to make a "Cream of this or that" soup, or keep them whole and throw in some broth and potatoes to dissolve the flavor.
• Make a mix. Mixing them with foods like rice, pasta, or potatoes is a good way to disperse the flavor or texture while still eating the fruits of your labor.
• Make a sandwich, burrito, or wrap. The vegetables will play a part in the overal flavor and texture, but not enormously so.

Meat.

• Make a sandwich or a burger. This is especially helpful of your meat turned out dry or tasteless. You can smother it with barbecue sauce or mustard, mayo and ketchup, and add some coleslaw or other toppings to give a fresh flavor.
• Make it meat AND something. If meat was the main component, consider making it a part of something new. Pair it with rice, noodles or veggies to make a stir fry, stroganoff, casserole, chili, or whatever else you fancy.

Beans.

• Make chili. Mushy, over-seasoned, or even burned beans can be transformed into a great chili with some canned tomatoes, stock, onions, and whatever else you fancy (veggies and meat are both great additions). Try adding some sour cream and cheese at the end, which really reduces any remnants of the "accidental" flavor.
• Make bean burgers. A few spices, an onion and a little creativity can turn a botched bean dish into a yummy vegetarian burger. Serve as you would any burger, with plenty of toppings and condiments in a hearty bun.

Pasta

• Make a casserole. Smother it with cheese and add flavorful, dispersing foods like tomatoes. A sauce with sour cream or cream cheese can also do a lot to make a milder flavor. 
• Make a frittata. Use pasta as one of the main components alongside some vegetables, cheese and even meat. 
• Potato pasta salad. The potatoes will provide some body to the dish and the dairy will help to smother whatever un-tastey flavor was there.

Remember, when you are fixing kitchen mistakes you are like an elite disaster-management specialist. You have the tools and the knowledge, but every situation is different and it's your sharp eye and gut feeling you must rely on. Remember to make it a game and have fun. Good luck!

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How to Frost a Cake

Should be simple enough - bake a cake and spread some flavored icing between the layers and on top. How hard can that be? Harder that one might think. To get a crumb-free, even application of frosting that will help keep the cake moist and increase the eye-appeal and yum factor of the cake, use these tips on how to frost a cake.

Let it Cool 

Be patient and allow the cake to cool completely before attempting to frost it. The freshly baked cake will fill the air with a mouth-watering aroma and it's difficult to be wait, but trying to frost a warm cake will leave you will a crumbly mess. If you're in a hurry, turn the cake out of the baking pans onto a platter and place layers into the freezer for a few minutes to help speed up the cooling process. Cake layers can be covered and frozen for frosting and eating at a later date.

No Crumbs 

Once the cake layers have completely cooled, brush away the crumbs with a pastry brush before assembling the layers. Spread a thin layer of frosting (about ½ a cup) on top of the first layer, then carefully place the second layer on top and spread another half-cup of frosting over the top. Repeat with any additional cake layers. 

Now spread a 'crumb coat' of frosting around the sides and over the top of the cake. The crumb coat is a thin layer of frosting that will keep crumbs out of the top layer of frosting. The crumb coat does not have to be perfect, it just needs to cover the entire cake. Allow cake to set for 30 minutes after being crumb-coated before adding the final layer of frosting.

Finish Line 

Now you can add the finishing touches and finally enjoy the homemade cake. Use a spatula or butter knife and generously spread the remaining frosting on top and sides of cake layers. Apply the final frosting layer neatly and evenly at first pass, then go back for a second pass with the spatula or butter knife to add decorative swirls. A lazy-susan turn table makes quick and easy work of frosting a round cake.